《海洋预报》| 威海极端南北大风特征对比及天气分型研究

威海极端南北大风特征对比及天气分型研究

单位：

1. 山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室, 山东 济南 250031;

2. 威海市气象局, 山东 威海 264200

分类号：P732.1

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·42·第三期（56-65）

摘要：利用威海市近10年的区域自动站资料和其他常规观测数据，对威海市极端南北大风特征和天气分型进行对比分析。结果表明：威海南北大风极端值的大值区主要分布在沿海地区，其中北大风平均风极端最大值可达到12级，阵风可达14级，南大风平均风极端最大值可达到12级，阵风可达13级。极端偏北大风的年频数大于南大风。极端北大风分冷锋后部型、冷锋-气旋型和台风型3种天气型，冷锋后部型的最显著特征是具有强的海平面气压梯度，冷锋-气旋型北大风925 hPa偏北风风速大于冷锋后部型，台风型925 hPa偏北风风速和阵风风速在3个类型中都是最大的，台风路径沿着威海东部黄海海面北上。极端南大风分气旋型和台风型两种天气型，气旋型最显著的特征是具有较强的暖平流，台风型则伴随强的动量下传，台风路径从济南和威海之间北上。在以上分析的基础上提出各天气型的关键气象因子的定量化阈值，并建立了5类极端大风天气概念模型。

关键词：极端大风 关键气象因子 天气概念模型

Abstract：Using the regional automatic station data and other conventional observation data in the past 10 years,a comparative analysis has been conducted on the characteristics and weather classification of extreme northerlysoutherly strong winds in Weihai. The conclusions include that the highest extreme northerly-southerly strong winds in Weihai are mainly distributed in coastal areas. The maximum average northerly winds reach level 12 and the maximum gust northerly winds reach level 14, the maximum average southerly winds reach level 12 and the maximum gust southerly winds reach level 13. The annual frequency of extreme northerly winds is greater than that of southerly winds. In addition, it is found that extreme northerly winds are mainly composed of three weather types: cold front posterior type, cold front cyclone type, and typhoon type. The most significant feature of the cold front posterior type is the strong sea level pressure gradient. The wind speed of the northerly winds at 925 hPa in the cold front cyclone type is higher than that of the cold front posterior. Both the mean and gust northerly wind speeds of Typhoon Type 925 hPa are the highest among the three types, and the associated typhoon paths are northward along the Yellow Sea in the eastern part of Weihai. There are two main types of extreme southern winds: cyclone type and typhoon type. The most prominent feature of cyclone type is its strong warm advection, while typhoon type is accompanied by strong momentum downward. The associated typhoon paths are northward from Jinan to Weihai. Based on the above analysis, quantitative thresholds for key meteorological factors of each weather type are given, and five conceptual models of extreme gale weather are established.

Key words：extreme strong winds; key meteorological factors; weather conceptual model

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预计明天，

渤海、黄海、东海北部有0.6到1.2米的轻浪；

东海南部、台湾海峡有1到1.6米的轻浪到中浪；

台湾以东洋面、巴士海峡有1.3到1.8米的中浪；

南海有1.8到2.8米的中浪到大浪区；

北部湾有1.3到1.8米的中浪。

预计后天，

南海的大浪区减弱消失。

8月14~18日西北太平洋海浪数值预报

35个美丽海岛环境预报

预计明天，

永暑礁附近海域有2.6米的大浪，黄岩岛附近海域有2.2米的中浪，不适宜乘船出行；

万山群岛、川山群岛、海陵岛、南三岛、东海岛附近海域有1.8~2米的中浪，平潭岛、涠洲岛、分界洲岛、蜈支洲岛、永兴岛附近海域有1.3~1.6米的中浪，这些海岛较适宜乘船出行和海岛游玩；

我国其他主要美丽海岛附近海域都是轻浪，海况不错，非常适宜乘船出行和海岛游玩。

35个美丽海岛是指以下海岛：

觉华岛、长山群岛、菩提岛、长岛、刘公岛、灵山岛、秦山岛、连岛、崇明岛、嵊泗列岛、岱山岛、东极岛、普陀山、大陈岛、玉环岛、洞头岛、南麂岛、嵛山岛、三都岛、平潭岛、湄洲岛、东山岛、钓鱼岛、南澳岛、万山群岛、川山群岛、海陵岛、南三岛、东海岛、涠洲岛、分界洲岛、蜈支洲岛、永兴岛、黄岩岛、永暑礁。

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